Photo : Gaetano Adriano Pulvirenti/AP/Euronews
06 October 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #325
IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh
DENMARK
Elections to be held ahead in November
On 05 October, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced fresh elections for 01 November 2022. Seven months before her term ends, Denmark is going to the polls to elect the members of the Folketing. With 179 seats up for grabs, opinion polls project that the ruling party and the opposition are neck-to-neck which feeds into Frederiksen’s reason for calling an early election. She has previously worked with the opposition to navigate the pandemic and recently in the case of increasing Denmark’s defence expenditure. The decision to call for early elections comes after a Parliament-appointed commission criticised the government’s move to cull millions of healthy minks during the pandemic. The government defended itself by saying that it was to reduce the risk of virus mutation. When the early elections were announced, Frederiksen hoped that the new government will include members of the current opposition party for a diverse diaspora to help tackle various issues. (“As support sags, Danish prime minister calls Nov. 1 election,” AP News, 05 October 2022)
THE UK
Migrants to be deported under the Rwanda Plan despite court intervention
On 05 October, Home Secretary Suella Braveman assured the conservative party that the Rwanda Plan is still on. The plan consists of deporting illegal migrants crossing the English Channel to Rwanda if they do not return back to their home country. The European Court of Human Rights intervened in June to stop the first flight from taking off. Braveman said that the plan needs to work in order to deter migrants from crossing the English Channel. The latest records show that 33,500 people have entered the UK through the Channel this year. Braveman hopes that this will act as a deterrent to stop illegal migrants from taking advantage of the Modern Slavery Act. (“Home Secretary Suella Braverman to change law to stop channel migrants,” BBC, 05 October 2022)
REGIONAL
European Commission to update the rescEU fleet
On 05 October, the European Commission proposed an expansion to the rescEU fleet and make it more efficient. It is looking to allocate EUR 170 million from the EU budget to strengthen the fleet from 2023. It is looking to expand the ground and aerial assets to a total of 22 planes, four helicopters and more ground support. The Commissioner for Crisis Management Janez Lenarčič explained how this year’s wildfire showed the unpreparedness of the rescEU fleet to deal with the emerging climate crises. The injection is expected to lead to a faster response at multiple places at once. (“Forest fires: €170 million to reinforce rescEU fleet,” ec.europa.eu, 05 October 2022)
The gas price cap is a temporary measure says Ursula
On 05 October, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in her speech at the European parliament said that a price cap will only be a temporary solution. LNG, which is an alternative source of energy for Europe is comparatively costlier alternative. Von der Leyen is expected to introduce a new EU price index, a proposal on the same will be sent to heads of states of EU members before the 07 October summit. This is a proposal would reduce the price of electricity and a wider measure to improve the electricity market. The President also introduced more funds under the REPowerEU plan for members to access to increase investment in energy infrastructure. There was also a plea from von der Leyen to not rush to stock up on gas which led to a global increase in price through a bidding situation. (“EU chief open to gas price cap as ‘temporary solution’ to energy crisis,” EURACTIV, 05 October 2022)
Moroccans dissent against visa policies
On 04 October, a group of Moroccans led a demonstration outside the European Union’s Office in Rabat against the “racist” and “humiliating” handling of visa applications, targeting France. One of the protestors said that, the visa applicants are subject to rejection, without having any right to ask for justification for the rejection, or face refusal for a refund of processing fees. Pointing out France’s decision to limit the number of visas provided to Moroccans and Algerians by half, activists protesting against this have said that the legitimacy of travel to EU countries is being questioned, and is “unacceptable and unjustified.” Public anger and wide resentment in Morocco and France, have led to a counterclaim by a French official who pronounced that the issue was exaggerated on social media, persisting that the number of student visa issues was similar to 2021. (“Moroccans protest ‘racist’ French, EU visa policies,” EURACTIV, 05 October 2022)
EU’s energy architecture under fire
On 05 October, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke of the target etched at the EU’s critical infrastructure and announced that the EU should make efficient use of its surveillance satellites to prevent sabotage and destruction. Referring to the wreckage of the Nord stream pipelines and the “vulnerability” of the EU’s energy structure, the president explained the detection of leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines that connect Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea, and how an inquiry against the issue is underway. Citing that these pipelines were the “lifelines of data and energy” for European citizens and businesses, von der Leyen reiterated that the EU is currently in the process of updating its directive for critical infrastructure would and cover 11 risk areas, which include natural hazards, terrorist attacks, sabotage and public health emergencies. Extending her proposals to impose a curb on the prices of gas used for electricity, she also added that other member states need to reach a consensus on such measures. Addressing Ukraine’s situation and praising its “successes,” the president ended her speech by extending support to Ukraine, asking it to “stay the course.” the EU would be on their side “for as long as it takes.” (“EU infrastructure a 'target' for first time in recent history, says von der Leyen”, euronews, 05 October 2022)
SPACE
"EIRSTAT-1" Ireland's first satellite
On 05 October, BBC reported that Ireland's first satellite was ready for launch. EIRSTAT-1 or Educational Irish Research Satellite 1 was built by the University College of Dublin (UCD) and will be launched in the time between mid-January to mid- February. The satellite was built to understand the formation of the universe. It is going to be put into Earth's orbit 520 kilometers from the ground and after its mission, it will return back to UCD. As the first ever satellite being built it has to be recognized by the Irish government and be registered at Educational Irish Research Satellite. (“Ireland's first satellite close to lift off,” BBC, 05 October 2022)
War in Ukraine: Day 224
By Padmashree Anandhan and Madhura S Mahesh
War on the Ground
On 05 October, the Ukraine Air Force reported on launching more than 10 strikes targeting nine Russian ammunition and military equipment spots. The attacks took place in Kherson, across the Dnieper River and as per their observation, Russia has been “regrouping” in some directions, launching offensives in Bakhmut and Avdiivka and has been struggling to keep up its temporary occupied zones. It also reported on deployment of Iran’s drones, Shahed-129 and Shahed-136 by Russia which do not cost much. This deployment is seen as a way to save its resources to purchase high-precision missiles like Kh-101, Kalibr, and Kh-555.
On 05 October, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared the capturing back the the villages of Novovoskresenske, Novogrygorivka and Petropavlivka in Kherson region.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 05 October, Russia President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to bring Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant under control of Russia. The order mandates the plant to be run by Russia’s state-owned firms Rosatom. On the same day, Putin remarked over vote results of the referendums where he expressed his surprise over the increased support to join Russia.
On 05 October, Gazprom issued a statement on resuming its gas supplies to Italy. The gas supplies are sent through the Trans Austria Gas Pipeline (TAG) to northern Italy through border of Austria, due to transit issues the supply was paused. Upon regulatory changes the energy has been resumed. The same was confirmed by Eni an Italian energy firm.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 05 October, the ground advance by Ukraine was confirmed by the UK intelligence. In a statement: “Politically, Russian leaders will highly likely be concerned that leading Ukrainian units are now approaching the borders of Luhansk Oblast, which Russia claimed to have formally annexed last Friday.”
On 05 October, Bulgaria’s Foreign Minister, Nikolay Milkov criticized the statement of the eastern and central European leaders on support to Ukraine joining NATO. He stated that mere expressing of support would not “fast-track” the accession process. President Rumen Radev said: “…decision on Ukraine’s accession to NATO should be made only after the development of clear parameters for the peaceful settlement of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.”
On 05 October, Reuters revealed the results of an opinion poll conducted asking Americans if the US should continue to provide military aid to Ukraine despite the Russian nuclear threat or action. The outcome of the poll was that three out of four Americans were of the opinion that the aid should continue. Out of a total of 1,005 respondents, 73 per cent were for the support. This was not just restricted to Democrats, the Republicans also voiced the same view. The poll also revealed that 58 per cent feared that the US and Russia will engage in a nuclear war. 65 per cent are of the view that if Ukraine acquires long-range weapons that can hit Russia the war will escalate.
On 05 October, The Guardian wrote a piece outlining Australia’s military contribution to Ukraine. Australia at the beginning of the war was called “the largest non-NATO contributor” to Ukraine’s defence, this has now evolved to “one of the largest” as it is becoming tough to authenticate information coming about each nation’s contribution and compare it according to Kiel Institute of military support. They also reported Ukraine’s bid to various allies to “adopt” a region of Ukraine to concentrate all their efforts to help Ukraine rebuild.
On 05 October, EU member nations give their support to the eighth package on sanctions. Proposed by the European Commission on 28 September, which targets to restrict Russia’s income by extending the ban list on Russian imports and EU exports to Russia. This is said to cost Russia EUR seven billion. The other main component of this package is that the EU agreed to a price cap on Russian oil maritime trade. Russia’s main source of income at this juncture is its oil exports. The price cap aims to target the service providers of Russian commercial oil tanks. They are insurance and shipping companies that are largely based in Europe and UK. The main discussion on the price cap was to look into the concerns of Greece, Cyprus and Malta which play an important role in Russian oil transportation to the rest of the world. This proposal will now be addressed by the G7 who will look into the matter in detail and see how it will affect the rest of the world.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 05 October, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi expressed that Iran, Russia and China will be instrumental in opposing the unipolar world order. In an interview with CGTN Raisi said that through the SCO, the Eurasian Economic Union EAEU and the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO) the three nations will be able to create a new power centre that will lead the multipolar world order.
On 05 October, the OPEC+ announced a uniform cut in the oil production by two million barrels. The cut in the quantity will lead to rise in oil price which can affect in two ways. Deter those energy reliant economies more since they have to afford the high energy prices, two it might give Russia the leverage to earn more thereby increasing the chances to spend more towards war.
References
“Ukraine’s Air Force strikes enemy positions over 10 times, Russians suffer losses in south,” Ukrinform, 05 October 2022
“Putin ‘surprised’ by referendum results,” RT, 05 October 2022
“Putin transfers Europe’s largest nuclear plant to Russian control,” RT, 05 October 2022
“Russia-Ukraine updates: Putin signs laws illegally annexing 4 Ukrainian regions,” Deutsche Welle, 05 October 2022
“Three in four Americans say U.S. should support Ukraine despite Russian threats, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows,” Reuters, 05 October 2022
“Australia’s military aid to Ukraine has been ramping up – here’s how it compares with other nations,” The Guardian, 05 October 2022
“Ukraine war: EU countries agree new sanctions on Russia that includes a price cap on Russian oil,” euronews, 05 October 2022
“Tehran, Moscow, Beijing to create new great power — Iranian president,” TASS, 05 October 2022
“OPEC+ top oil producers agree to slash production,” Deutsche Welle, 05 October 2022